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Interpreting Regression Output Without Panicking: A Plain-English Guide

Interpreting Regression Output Without Panicking: A Plain-English Guide

You have run your regression in SPSS or R. Now you are looking at a table full of numbers — coefficients, standard errors, t-values, p-values, R², and things labelled VIF — and your dissertation deadline is tomorrow. This guide explains each element in plain English.

The Model Summary: R² and Adjusted R²

R² (R-squared) tells you how much of the variation in your dependent variable is explained by your independent variables. An R² of 0.63 means your model explains 63% of the variation in the outcome. In social science and business research, R² values of 0.25–0.65 are common and acceptable — you don't need R² = 0.90 to have a meaningful model.

Use Adjusted R² when you have multiple independent variables. It penalises for adding variables that don't actually improve the model, giving a more honest picture of fit.

The ANOVA Table: Is the Model Significant?

Before examining individual coefficients, check whether the overall model is statistically significant. In the ANOVA table, look at the F-statistic and its Sig. (significance) value. If Sig. < 0.05, your model as a whole is statistically significant — the combination of predictors explains the outcome better than chance.

Coefficients: Understanding Each Predictor

The coefficients table shows, for each independent variable: the unstandardised coefficient (B), standard error, standardised coefficient (Beta), t-statistic, and significance level (Sig.).

  • B (unstandardised coefficient): For every one-unit increase in X, Y changes by B units — holding all other variables constant.
  • Beta (standardised coefficient): Allows you to compare the relative importance of different predictors (all on the same scale). Higher absolute Beta = stronger predictor.
  • Sig. (p-value): If Sig. < 0.05, the predictor is statistically significant. If Sig. > 0.05, that predictor may not have a meaningful relationship with the outcome in your sample.
Should you worry about p = 0.054? In strict frequentist terms, 0.054 is not statistically significant at the 5% threshold. However, context matters — in exploratory business research, some researchers report p < 0.10 as marginally significant. Be transparent about this in your discussion, and note the limitation.

Checking Assumptions

Multicollinearity (VIF): Check the Collinearity Statistics column. VIF values above 10 (some say 5) suggest multicollinearity — your predictors are too highly correlated with each other, making individual coefficient interpretation unreliable. Consider removing one of the correlated predictors.

Residual Normality: Check the P-P Plot or histogram of residuals. Residuals should be approximately normally distributed. A curved P-P plot suggests non-normality — note this as a limitation.

Homoscedasticity: Check the scatterplot of standardised residuals against predicted values. Points should be randomly distributed — a funnel shape indicates heteroscedasticity, which can affect the reliability of significance tests.

Reporting Regression in Your Dissertation

Report as: "A multiple linear regression was conducted to predict [Y] from [X1, X2, X3]. The model was statistically significant, F(df1, df2) = [F-value], p < .001, and explained [R²]% of variance in [Y] (Adjusted R² = [value]). [X1] was the strongest predictor (β = [Beta], p = [Sig.]), followed by [X2] (β = [Beta], p = [Sig.])."

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